This bias is so named after the discovery of a surprising paradox. When studying 300 videos of penalty shots in high-level competition, an ESSEC researcher discovered that:
👉 in 94% of cases, the goalkeeper dives (to the right or left)
👉 in 6% of cases, he remains motionless in the center of the goals
On the other hand:
👉 the shooter shoots to the right or left in 71% of cases
👉 and he shoots in the middle of the goal in 29% of cases!
How can we explain this paradox? Why do goalkeepers always dive so much? When by staying in the middle they have a MUCH BETTER CHANCE of stopping the penalty?
Under pressure, the goalkeeper loses his lucidity. He is subject to a bias of the "action bias" type. His instinct tells him that if he dives the wrong way, people will say he is unlucky. Whereas if he concedes the goal while remaining motionless, he will look ridiculous and will be criticized for not having tried anything.
What does this tell us?
Let us think of a situation in our life, where under strong pressure, we feel incited to immediate and massive action… we are probably subject to penalty bias. How can we reduce its influence to our advantage?
Let's have the REFLEX to take a moment to STEP BACK, take a step to the side. Let's take the time to say to ourselves: "it may be urgent to do nothing". In order to lucidly measure THE ADVANTAGE THERE MIGHT BE IN NOT CHANGING ANYTHING IN REGARD TO THE RISK OF REPROACH FOR NOT HAVING DONE ANYTHING. Then decide. To dive in or not.
It is a most demanding decision-making situation. Where we recognize the great goalkeepers, the great leaders, the wise men.
And where we can also recognize ourselves, by taking this time to step back. Woaching lends itself ideally to this.
Francois Thouret
PS: for fun, here is a picture of a great goalkeeper who was able to take advantage of Goalkeeper Bias (duration 6 minutes): video
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